Global wildfire risk modelling

November 2018

Earthscope founded

October 2019

Joined Geovation Accelerator Programme

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Sam Murphy



Our vision is to build the best wildfire risk index in the world. Our mission is to detect and forecast wildfires more accurately than ever before. We are doing this by leveraging data from infrared satellite imagery along with partnerships with people on the ground to create unique, valuable insights on wildfires around the world in an era of climate change.


The problem we are solving is uncertainty in wildfire risk. The risk of an event happening controls the expected financial loss. This expected loss is the basis of insurance pricing. The huge uncertainty in wildfire risk today creates a deal breaking gap in expected loss between the buyers and sellers of insurance.


The solution has four components: detection of active fires and burn scars, prediction of fire paths during a crisis and in simulated events, impact assessment of the physical and economic damage, and risk mapping areas that are at risk of future wildfires. We will commercialize each of these components.

Go to Market

The wildfire insurance is a $24bn market and expected to continue its increase due to climate change. We have two types of subscription services. The first bundles detection, prediction and impact into a single service called tracker pro. The second is the wildfire risk index. Our go to market leverages unique partnerships in UK and Australia. They include the Insurtech Gateway with offices in London and Sydney.


A large specialty insurance underwriter has requested an early version of tracker pro, as has a multinational carbon sequestration programme. The advisor to the MP for Emergency Government (Australia) spoke with us in Parliament House about their needs for our services (all four components). We are speaking with RFS superintendent (Sean McArdle) as well as the Kung-ring-gai council (NSW). SwissRe (Australia) has explicitly asked for our wildfire risk index. We have more user demand than we can handle.